There is already controversy among the electorate regarding the presidential election. Speculation around who will be elected continues to consume the media. Domestic issues, foreign wars, and a general discontent with candidates will have an impact on who will be elected as president next fall.
The candidates include Democrats Joe Biden, Marianne Williamson, and Dean Phillips; and Republicans, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. The independents are Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein.
Meridian individuals and societies teachers Ms. Natalie Glees and Mr. Mark Deal provided insight into the 2024 presidential election.
“It doesn’t seem like there are legitimate challengers in either party’s race right now,” Ms. Glees said.
With the way that the projected polls are turning out, statistically this is very much true. According to the Associated Press, Trump leads the Republican polls with 122 delegates. Nikki Haley follows with 24 delegates. On the democratic side, Biden holds 206 delegates, and no other candidate has a single delegate. Even though Trump’s delegate lead may seem closer than some think, Deal does not think that this is reflective of what is to come in the following months.
“His margins will probably increase,” Mr. Deal claimed. The Republican primaries are also structured differently from the Democratic primaries. The Republican system can work as more of a winner takes all system. “…for example, if former President Trump gets 50% plus one vote, and there are 100 delegates at stake, he gets 100 delegates…if [Nikki Haley] gets 49.9% of the vote, she gets zero delegates, and that’s part of it,” Mr. Deal said.
In reality there is no candidate that has the popularity, funding, and ratings that could compete in both respective parties.
“[Citizens] blame [Biden] for all the current issues our country’s experiencing, and many think the economic state is really poor in the country under Biden’s leadership. However, a lot of recent reporting has shown that the economy is actually fairly strong right now,” Ms. Glees said.
Additionally, whenever the president is usually in the hot seat if domestic or international crises occur, such as the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
With regards to former president Trump, he isn’t free from harsh criticism either.
“A lot of Americans do not support Trump because of his personal conduct..they support his policies, but not all of the criminal accusations against him,” Ms. Glees said.
While Trump and Biden face different sets of issues, there are challenges both men face like their “age as well and people are sick of having the same candidates that we already had,” Ms. Glees concluded. This will undoubtedly be an influence on voter turnout.
While Trump and Biden’s age are both concerns, Biden’s age is more criticized than Trump’s. Insider NJ analzyzed a survey conducted by Emerson College Polling. As part of the survey, Emerson Polling asked if Biden’s age raises doubt about voting for him, and if Trump’s criminal indictments make them concerned about voting for him. The results are almost exactly even. 58% say Biden’s age raises serious doubts in their minds while 42% say it’s not a serious factor for them. 57% say Trump’s criminal indictments raise serious doubts and 43% say it’s not a serious factor.
“[Trump’s] supporters are so fervent,” Ms. Glees said.
It is definitely true that Donald Trump’s core supporters are going to present a definite challenge to the Biden campaign once again.
“My guess is that if it’s a repeat of 2020…I’m guessing it will be a close election that Biden squeaks out,” Mr. Deal speculated.
45% of voters favor Trump, 44% favor Biden, while 11% are undecided, reveals a survey conducted by Emerson College Polling. Because the election is projected to be so close, having ‘the upper hand’ right now won’t mean anything when votes are being cast.
“Voter turnout probably isn’t going to be very high in this election, because people are frustrated with their choices, and they don’t want to vote for either candidate,” Ms. Glees said.
“Young people tend to be somewhat more idealistic…as far as their ideals and tend to be looking for someone who more perfectly represents their goals. And I think they are less willing to compromise on what their ideals are,” Mr. Deal said, building off of Ms. Glees’ speculation.
Ultimately, there are multiple factors that will influence the outcome of the election. With polls neck and neck, who will eventually prevail is uncertain.
