Best Picks to Make for March Madness
[Photo 1: March Madness logo on the floor (Photo by Bleacher Report)]
Best Upset Picks
12 – Colorado State over 5 – Memphis
Colorado State is red-hot, winning their last ten games, including a Mountain West Championship to get them to the big dance. They have three guys who average 10+ points per game with their point guard, Nique Clifford, averaging 19 points per game. Memphis has won eight in a row, but only against teams that did not make the tournament. Memphis is a weak five seed, with a lot of bracketologists having them as a 7 seed. They have a comparable field goal percentage and three point percentage to Colorado State. With Memphis not playing many quad one games in conference play, this game will be one of the trendier upset picks. Colorado State is favored in this game with two equally matched teams.
11 – VCU over 6 – BYU
Ryan Odom is the latest coach to take a defense-first Rams squad into the NCAA tournament. VCU is the only team in the country to rank top-30 in steal rate, block rate, 2-pt% defense and 3-pt% defense. The Rams consistently run out multiple 6’10” men, and have four seniors in the starting lineup, all of whom average double-digit scoring. Experience matters in these games, where the pressure is on. Although BYU is one of the hottest teams in the country, they rely on attempting and making a lot of three-pointers. While this can be a successful way to win, it might not be sustainable against the Rams’ top-20 defense. BYU has struggled against teams that guard the three-point line, such as Houston and Arizona.
12 – UC San Diego over 5 – Michigan
UC San Diego is on a 15 game winning streak, going 30-4 in the regular season. They won their first big west title ever, beating UC Irvine, a team they lost to earlier in the year. UC San Diego forces 10 steals per game, and Michigan averages the most turnovers per game in the big ten. Michigan has been up and down, losing their last three regular season games but winning the big ten tournament. Michigan runs their offense through their two bigs, Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin. If you can shut down the bigs, Michigan will be in a ton of trouble with a team who can shoot and force turnovers.
Best Final Four Picks
1 – Duke
Duke battled through the ACC tournament despite superstar freshman and projected number one overall pick in the draft, Cooper Flagg, sitting out with an ankle injury. Flagg is expected back for the first game of the tournament, but concerns that this injury could linger could hurt Duke’s chances. Flagg’s 600-point regular season led Duke to the best record in the NCAA this year, but fellow freshman Kon Knueppel stepped up big-time in his absence, with 28 points in the quarterfinals and 17 in the semifinals. The Blue Devils are one of the most efficient teams in the country on both sides of the ball; but to keep operating on the elite level, they need a healthy Flagg.
2 – Tennessee
Defense wins championships, and the Volunteers have as strong an argument as any to cut down the nets. Don’t try to shoot the 3-ball against Tennessee, as they held opponents to 27.6% shooting from the arc, lowest in the country. Don’t try to drive inside against the Vols either, as shot-blockers Igor Milicic Jr. and Felix Okpara will be waiting. Seniors Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier get Tennessee’s methodical offense going, and it ranks in the top 20 nationally in terms of efficiency. With key wins against Florida and Auburn, both of whom are 1-seeds in the tournament, Tennessee has the ability to beat any team in the tournament.
1 – Florida
Florida is debatably the hottest team in the country coming off dominating the SEC tournament. They have won six straight in the hardest conference in the country. They average 85.4 points and 42 rebounds per game, which is the fourth best in the country. Florida is starred by Walter Clayton, who averages 17 points per game, along one of the best centers in the country with Alex Condon. With their quick ability to get out and run, it’s hard for any team to stop them. Auburn might be the overall number one seed, but there is no team that is hotter than Florida.
